Clay County is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 60% of adults in Clay County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Clay County, ~30% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Clay County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Clay County sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 13 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 1 leaning the other way.
Clay County runs about 32 points more Democratic than South Dakota as a whole. South Dakota leans Republican overall, while Clay County sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Clay County. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+19) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+46), a spread of about 65 points.
Why Clay County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Clay County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Clay County votes against the grain of South Dakota. South Dakota leans Republican overall, while Clay County runs about 32 points more Democratic.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Clay County, SD sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Clay County looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 47% of households in Clay County rent, about 22 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and Clay County sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Union County, SD R+43
- Cedar County, NE R+67
- Yankton County, SD R+35
- Dixon County, NE R+56
- Turner County, SD R+53
- Dakota County, NE R+15
- Plymouth County, IA R+49
- Woodbury County, IA R+9
- Wayne County, NE R+44
- Sioux County, IA R+55
Counties with Similar Populations
- Jackson County, TX R+62
- Arenac County, MI R+40
- Bledsoe County, TN R+66
- Mitchell County, NC R+56
- Jackson Parish, LA R+43
- Hamilton County, IA R+34
- Torrance County, NM R+36
- Missaukee County, MI R+49
- Cleburne County, AL R+84
- Larue County, KY R+58
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from South Dakota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.