Dayton, MN Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Dayton

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Dayton is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.

 

About 89% of adults in Dayton typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Dayton, ~43% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~11% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Dayton compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Dayton leans more Republican than 55 of 97 neighbors.

Dayton runs about 9 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Dayton. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 15 points.

Why Dayton leans the way it does

Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Dayton. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.

Cancer-screening access and voter turnout

Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Dayton, MN sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.

Why turnout in Dayton looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Dayton is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 94% of households in Dayton own their home, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.