Dover leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 84% of adults in Dover typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Dover, ~25% vote Democratic, ~59% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Dover compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Dover leans more Republican than 89 of 140 neighbors.
Dover runs about 38 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Dover. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+53) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+22), a spread of about 31 points.
Why Dover leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Dover, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dover votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 37%, above 83% of cities). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Dover, PA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Dover looks the way it does
Turnout in Dover sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Eastmont, PA R+42
- Mount Royal, PA R+54
- Weigelstown, PA R+25
- Wellsville, PA R+51
- Shiloh, PA R+20
- Erney, PA R+43
- Thomasville, PA R+49
- Kralltown, PA R+56
- West York, PA D+6
Cities with Similar Populations
- Sanford, ME R+4
- Destrehan, LA R+34
- Haverstraw, NY D+17
- Raymondville, TX R+3
- Annville, PA R+31
- Verde Village, AZ R+14
- Mount Vernon, IN R+40
- Belle Mead, NJ D+25
- Beebe, AR R+58
- North St. Paul, MN D+18
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.