Durham leans heavily Republican by roughly 50 points: about 25% of voters vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 44% of adults in Durham typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Durham, ~11% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~56% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Durham compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Durham leans more Republican than 25 of 52 neighbors.
Durham runs about 19 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Why Durham leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Durham, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 4% of residents in Durham live in densely developed areas, about 9 points below the Arkansas average of 13%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Durham sits in the bottom quarter (about 9%, below 95% of cities).
Developed land and Republican lean
Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; Durham, AR sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Durham looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 6% of homes in Durham have more than one occupant per room, above 90% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sulphur City, AR R+34
- Mountain Crest, AR R+59
- Elkins, AR R+40
- Wyola, AR R+41
- Harris, AR R+36
- Crosses, AR R+10
- Tuttle, AR R+37
- Wesley, AR R+60
- Woolsey, AR R+42
- Japton, AR R+64
Cities with Similar Populations
- Micro, NC R+40
- Moultonborough Falls, NH D+6
- Conda, ID R+72
- Nelliston, NY R+46
- Nixonton, NC R+15
- Richland, OR R+56
- Coopersville, NY R+17
- Wilmont, MN R+69
- Lamont, MI R+40
- Oakman, GA R+76
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.