Durham is a Republican stronghold. About 14% of voters here vote Democratic and 86% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Durham typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Durham, ~10% vote Democratic, ~64% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Durham compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Durham leans more Republican than 37 of 41 neighbors.
Durham runs about 55 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Why Durham leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Durham, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Durham, about 97% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 14% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 8 points below the Missouri average of 22%. Car-dependent areas vote Republican, and about 87% of residents in Durham drive to work alone, above 86% of cities. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in Durham are family households, above 77% of cities.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Durham, MO sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Durham looks the way it does
Turnout in Durham sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Ewing, MO R+73
- Maywood, MO R+71
- Nelsonville, MO R+74
- Tolona, MO R+74
- Taylor, MO R+68
- La Grange, MO R+55
- Philadelphia, MO R+73
- Lewistown, MO R+70
- Steffenville, MO R+74
Cities with Similar Populations
- South Otselic, NY R+51
- Olney, OK R+73
- Marathon, TX R+39
- Milledgeville, TN R+75
- Lake Marian Highlands, FL R+67
- Mingoville, PA R+44
- Tacoma, CO D+10
- Johnson, IN R+61
- Cedar Hill, NY D+9
- Du Pont, GA R+59
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.