El Cajon leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 57% of adults in El Cajon typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in El Cajon, ~26% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How El Cajon compares
Among cities within 25 miles, El Cajon leans more Republican than 21 of 36 neighbors.
El Cajon runs about 31 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while El Cajon is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within El Cajon. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+10) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+34), a spread of about 44 points.
Why El Cajon leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for El Cajon, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
El Cajon votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 92%, far above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. El Cajon runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; El Cajon, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in El Cajon looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 49% of households in El Cajon rent, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 21% of adults in El Cajon report food insecurity, above 84% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Bostonia, CA R+8
- Rancho San Diego, CA R+18
- Casa de Oro-Mount Helix, CA D+11
- Lakeside, CA R+23
- Santee, CA R+9
- Spring Valley, CA D+11
- La Mesa, CA D+24
- La Presa, CA D+18
- Lemon Grove, CA D+22
- Jamul, CA R+34
Cities with Similar Populations
- Vallejo, CA D+38
- Simi Valley, CA Even
- Springfield, IL D+14
- Santa Clara, CA D+35
- Hamilton, OH R+25
- Athens, GA D+32
- Norman, OK D+3
- Clearwater, FL R+3
- Beaumont, TX D+25
- Abilene, TX R+30
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.