El Paso leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 78% of adults in El Paso typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in El Paso, ~36% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How El Paso compares
Among cities within 25 miles, El Paso leans more Republican than 17 of 19 neighbors.
El Paso runs about 14 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while El Paso is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why El Paso leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for El Paso, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
El Paso votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 27%, modestly above the New Mexico average of 18%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in El Paso are family households, above 77% of cities. El Paso runs against the grain of New Mexico, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; El Paso, NM sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in El Paso looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 98% of households in El Paso own their home, about 17 points above the New Mexico average of 80%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and El Paso sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in El Paso have completed high school, above 89% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Santa Teresa, NM R+4
- Canutillo, TX D+7
- Vinton, TX D+3
- La Union, NM R+5
- Anthony, TX D+6
- Sunland Park, NM D+13
- Anthony, NM D+5
- Chamberino, NM Even
- Berino, NM R+4
Cities with Similar Populations
- Zoar, IN R+57
- Gipsy, PA R+66
- Mexia Crossing, AL R+38
- Eagleton, MT R+53
- Pekin, IA R+46
- Ginger Blue, MO R+66
- Little Miami, GA R+20
- Crystal Falls, TX R+76
- Little Plymouth, VA R+34
- Linthicum Heights, MD D+17
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.