Elm leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Elm typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Elm, ~21% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Elm compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Elm leans more Republican than 148 of 161 neighbors.
Elm runs about 43 points more Republican than New Jersey as a whole. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while Elm is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Elm leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Elm, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Elm votes against the grain of New Jersey. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while Elm runs about 43 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 80% of households in Elm are family households, above 90% of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Elm, NJ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Elm looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 97% of households in Elm own their home, about 23 points above the New Jersey average of 74%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Waterford Works, NJ R+22
- Chesilhurst, NJ D+24
- Hammonton, NJ R+23
- Winslow, NJ R+19
- Atco, NJ R+8
- Crowfoot, NJ R+22
- Indian Mills, NJ R+31
- Folsom, NJ R+30
- Da Costa, NJ R+32
Cities with Similar Populations
- Old Frame, PA R+56
- York, WI R+35
- Wakenda, MO R+68
- Caney City, TX R+64
- Hudsonville, IN R+64
- Oil Valley, KY R+75
- Cleaton, KY R+61
- Brinsmade, ND R+47
- Mars Hill-Blaine, ME R+41
- Martins Siding, VA D+5
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.