Elmira is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Elmira typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Elmira, ~27% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Elmira compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Elmira sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 109 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 3 leaning the other way.
Elmira runs about 10 points more Republican than New York as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Elmira. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+11) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+12), a spread of about 23 points.
Why Elmira leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Elmira. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Elmira, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Elmira looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 48% of households in Elmira rent, about 23 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 23% of adults in Elmira report food insecurity, above 88% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 84% of adults in Elmira have completed high school, below 83% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- West Elmira, NY D+2
- Southport, NY R+20
- Elmira Heights, NY R+19
- Pine City, NY R+33
- Horseheads, NY R+19
- Wellsburg, NY R+41
- Lowman, NY R+51
- North Chemung, NY R+52
- Big Flats, NY R+15
- Breesport, NY R+38
Cities with Similar Populations
- Coventry, RI R+4
- Denison, TX R+37
- Shaker Heights, OH D+72
- Grand Haven, MI R+10
- Ponchatoula, LA R+51
- Tewksbury, MA Even
- Newtown, PA D+7
- Summerfield, FL R+39
- Oceanside, NY R+17
- Jasper, AL R+67
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.