Ensenada is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 47% of adults in Ensenada typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ensenada, ~23% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~53% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ensenada compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Ensenada sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 2 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 6 leaning the other way.
Ensenada runs about 8 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Ensenada. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+30) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+2), a spread of about 33 points.
Why Ensenada leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Ensenada. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Ensenada, NM does.
Why turnout in Ensenada looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Ensenada is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 23% of homes in Ensenada have more than one occupant per room, in the top fraction of cities. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Ensenada sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Tierra Amarilla, NM D+3
- Los Ojos, NM R+2
- Rutheron, NM R+2
- Las Nutrias, NM R+6
- Chama, NM Even
- Canjilon, NM R+7
- Fox Creek, CO R+8
- Monero, NM D+33
Cities with Similar Populations
- Zephyr, NC R+59
- Dyer Brook, ME R+45
- Cochrans Mills, PA R+61
- Coffeeville, TX R+68
- Griffith, TN R+70
- Shattuc, IL R+60
- Gauley Mills, WV R+67
- Pisgah, AR R+73
- Newburg, ND R+64
- Cherokee Bluffs, AL R+48
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.