Ernestville is a Republican stronghold. About 18% of voters here vote Democratic and 82% Republican.
About 82% of adults in Ernestville typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ernestville, ~15% vote Democratic, ~67% Republican, and ~18% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ernestville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Ernestville leans more Republican than 33 of 43 neighbors.
Ernestville runs about 45 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Why Ernestville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ernestville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 81% of households in Ernestville are family households, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a low never-married share and a rural land-use pattern tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Ernestville, MO does.
Why turnout in Ernestville looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 90% of households in Ernestville own their home, about 12 points above the Missouri average of 78%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Concordia, MO R+51
- Valley City, MO R+59
- Dunksburg, MO R+62
- Emma, MO R+64
- Fayetteville, MO R+61
- Higginsville, MO R+43
- Stokley, MO R+62
- Montserrat, MO R+49
- Corder, MO R+58
Cities with Similar Populations
- Blackwell, TX R+79
- Qualls, OK R+39
- Selfs, TX R+77
- Kipling, OH R+59
- Canby, CA R+51
- Ramona, SD R+50
- Osterhout, PA R+42
- Montague, NC R+17
- Webster, WV R+62
- Bynum, TX R+74
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.