Valley City is a Republican stronghold. About 21% of voters here vote Democratic and 79% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Valley City typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Valley City, ~16% vote Democratic, ~62% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Valley City compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Valley City leans more Republican than 18 of 45 neighbors.
Valley City runs about 40 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Why Valley City leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Valley City, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas with a high white share vote Republican. Valley City sits in the bottom quarter on density and about 99% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 12 points above the Missouri average of 87%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 84% of households in Valley City are family households, above 96% of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Valley City, MO sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Valley City looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 91% of households in Valley City own their home, about 13 points above the Missouri average of 78%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Montserrat, MO R+49
- Dunksburg, MO R+62
- Ernestville, MO R+63
- Stokley, MO R+62
- Knob Noster, MO R+41
- Whiteman AFB, MO R+23
- Fayetteville, MO R+61
- Warrensburg, MO R+19
- Whiteman Air Force Base, MO R+51
- Concordia, MO R+51
Cities with Similar Populations
- New Minden, IL R+65
- New Rockport Colony, MT R+60
- Herbster, WI D+7
- Leivasy, WV R+65
- Shady Grove, TN R+73
- Mount Landing, VA Even
- Phillipsville, AL R+88
- Violet, TX R+32
- McCallum, MS R+42
- Lower Cincinnatus, NY R+50
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.