Essex Junction leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Vermont did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 85% of adults in Essex Junction typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Essex Junction, ~47% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Essex Junction compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Essex Junction leans more Democratic than 38 of 73 neighbors.
Essex Junction runs about 22 points more Republican than Vermont as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Essex Junction. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+26) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+7), a spread of about 19 points.
Why Essex Junction leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Essex Junction, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 53% of adults in Essex Junction hold a bachelor's degree, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Essex Junction, VT sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Essex Junction looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Essex Junction is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 77%, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Westford, VT D+4
- Underhill, VT D+11
- Essex, VT D+24
- Underhill Center, VT D+18
- Jericho, VT D+22
- Milton, VT R+9
- Cambridge, VT R+5
- West Milton, VT R+5
- Fairfax, VT R+17
- Stevensville, VT D+15
Cities with Similar Populations
- Chapel Hill, AL D+13
- Silverdale, MN R+33
- Dry Valley, NV R+64
- Dudley, TX R+74
- Woodlake, KY R+34
- Red Fork, AR R+45
- St. Benedict, ND R+36
- Nortonville, NJ R+28
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Vermont Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. VT did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.