Chapel Hill leans slightly Democratic by roughly 12 points: about 56% of voters vote Democratic and 44% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Chapel Hill typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Chapel Hill, ~29% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Chapel Hill compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Chapel Hill leans more Democratic than 63 of 65 neighbors.
Chapel Hill runs about 43 points more Democratic than Alabama as a whole. Alabama leans Republican overall, while Chapel Hill is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why Chapel Hill leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Chapel Hill, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Chapel Hill votes against the grain of Alabama. Alabama leans Republican overall, while Chapel Hill runs about 43 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 32% of adults in Chapel Hill have never been married, above 80% of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Chapel Hill, AL sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Chapel Hill looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Chapel Hill is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 8 points below the Alabama average of 54%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 32% of adults in Chapel Hill report food insecurity, above 96% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 73% of adults in Chapel Hill have completed high school, below 97% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Penton, AL R+53
- Marcoot, AL R+29
- Lafayette, AL D+5
- Stroud, AL R+55
- Pooles Crossroad, AL R+47
- Milltown, AL D+6
- Tiller Crossroads, AL R+50
- Five Points, AL R+37
- Fredonia, AL R+46
- Bacon Level, AL R+41
Cities with Similar Populations
- Silverdale, MN R+33
- Marshall Ford, TX Even
- Olex, OR R+50
- Joy, WV R+71
- Woodlake, KY R+34
- Red Fork, AR R+45
- Unity, TX R+79
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Alabama Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.