Gainesville leans heavily Republican by roughly 50 points: about 25% of voters vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Gainesville typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Gainesville, ~17% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Gainesville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Gainesville leans more Republican than 73 of 111 neighbors.
Gainesville runs about 62 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Gainesville is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Gainesville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Gainesville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Gainesville votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while Gainesville runs about 62 points more Republican.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Gainesville, NY does.
Why turnout in Gainesville looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 96% of adults in Gainesville have completed high school, about 5 points above the New York average of 91%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Hardys, NY R+51
- Lamont, NY R+50
- North Gainesville, NY R+49
- Hermitage, NY R+50
- Silver Springs, NY R+41
- Pike, NY R+54
- Wethersfield Springs, NY R+50
- Castile, NY R+37
- Bliss, NY R+53
- Portageville, NY R+47
Cities with Similar Populations
- Mineral Springs, LA R+85
- Mount Pleasant, AR R+70
- Brady, NE R+70
- Maximo, OH R+51
- Folsom, GA R+76
- Onida, SD R+57
- Teton Village, WY D+19
- Taswell, IN R+55
- Pinebur, MS R+66
- Princeton, KS R+55
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.