North Gainesville leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 83% of adults in North Gainesville typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in North Gainesville, ~22% vote Democratic, ~62% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How North Gainesville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, North Gainesville leans more Republican than 78 of 117 neighbors.
North Gainesville runs about 61 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while North Gainesville is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why North Gainesville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for North Gainesville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
North Gainesville votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while North Gainesville runs about 61 points more Republican. Car-dependent areas vote Republican, and about 88% of residents in North Gainesville drive to work alone, above 89% of cities. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 79% of households in North Gainesville are family households, above 86% of cities.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; North Gainesville, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in North Gainesville looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 91% of households in North Gainesville own their home, about 15 points above the New York average of 76%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Silver Springs, NY R+41
- South Warsaw, NY R+37
- Wethersfield Springs, NY R+50
- Warsaw, NY R+27
- Gainesville, NY R+50
- Hermitage, NY R+50
- Hardys, NY R+51
- West Perry, NY R+39
- Castile, NY R+37
- Lamont, NY R+50
Cities with Similar Populations
- Zylks, LA R+39
- Harryhogan, VA R+17
- Saulsburg, PA R+55
- Copeland, OK R+65
- Middlegrove, IL R+41
- Union Springs, LA R+77
- Massillon, IA R+46
- Estes, TX R+57
- Mora, LA R+75
- New Post, WI R+19
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.