Gardiner leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 84% of adults in Gardiner typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Gardiner, ~40% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Gardiner compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Gardiner leans more Republican than 3 of 6 neighbors.
Gardiner runs about 14 points more Democratic than Montana as a whole.
Why Gardiner leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Gardiner, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in Gardiner live in densely developed areas, about 10 points below the Montana average of 13%.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Gardiner, MT does.
Why turnout in Gardiner looks the way it does
Turnout in Gardiner sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Jardine, MT R+6
- Corwin Springs, MT R+4
- Yellowstone National Park, WY R+46
- Miner, MT Even
- Emigrant, MT R+22
- Pray, MT R+34
- West Yellowstone, MT D+6
- Big Sky, MT D+7
- Silver Gate, MT R+9
- Pine Creek, MT R+29
Cities with Similar Populations
- Landfall, MN D+11
- Caspian, MI R+28
- Avon, SD R+57
- Gratz, PA R+66
- Pelham, TN R+66
- South Montrose, PA R+48
- Whitefield, OK R+72
- Pittsburg, MI R+34
- Theta, TN R+58
- Nortonville, KS R+55
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.