Guernsey leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 73% of adults in Guernsey typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Guernsey, ~19% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Guernsey compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Guernsey leans more Republican than 29 of 46 neighbors.
Guernsey runs about 35 points more Republican than Iowa as a whole.
Why Guernsey leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Guernsey, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 12% of adults in Guernsey hold a bachelor's degree, about 12 points below the Iowa average of 24%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in Guernsey are family households, above 78% of cities.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Guernsey, IA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Guernsey looks the way it does
Turnout in Guernsey sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Deep River, IA R+49
- Victor, IA R+46
- Millersburg, IA R+43
- Ladora, IA R+48
- Brooklyn, IA R+44
- Gibson, IA R+53
- Hartwick, IA R+47
- Montezuma, IA R+41
- Malcom, IA R+46
- Barnes City, IA R+54
Cities with Similar Populations
- Niagara, KY R+52
- Moeville, WI R+37
- Gibbon Glade, PA R+57
- Captiva, FL R+34
- Prospect, NC R+27
- DeLay, MS R+73
- Stowell, PA R+57
- Ivan, LA R+67
- West Chesterfield, MA D+30
- Blooming Valley, PA R+53
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Iowa Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.