Harding County leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Harding County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Harding County, ~24% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Harding County compares
Harding County runs about 43 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Harding County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Harding County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Harding County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Harding County votes against the grain of New Mexico. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Harding County runs about 43 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Harding County sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 1%, in the bottom fraction of counties).
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Harding County, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Harding County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Harding County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Quay County, NM R+32
- Union County, NM R+52
- Colfax County, NM R+10
- Mora County, NM D+18
- San Miguel County, NM D+24
- Guadalupe County, NM Even
- Dallam County, TX R+46
- Hartley County, TX R+76
- Oldham County, TX R+80
- Las Animas County, CO R+13
Counties with Similar Populations
- Yakutat City and Borough, AK Even
- Thomas County, NE R+76
- Banner County, NE R+79
- Borden County, TX R+93
- Grant County, NE R+84
- San Juan County, CO D+29
- Slope County, ND R+74
- Loup County, NE R+72
- Hooker County, NE R+79
- McMullen County, TX R+59
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.