Hartley County is a Republican stronghold. About 12% of voters here vote Democratic and 88% Republican.
About 86% of adults in Hartley County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hartley County, ~10% vote Democratic, ~76% Republican, and ~14% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hartley County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Hartley County leans more Republican than 3 of 4 neighbors.
Hartley County runs about 62 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Hartley County. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+87) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+72), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Hartley County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hartley County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 72% of households in Hartley County are family households, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Adult arthritis and voter turnout
Places with a low adult-arthritis rate tend to turn out at a higher rate; Hartley County, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Arthritis does not drive turnout; it reflects the age and health profile of an area.
Why turnout in Hartley County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Hartley County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Dallam County, TX R+46
- Moore County, TX R+32
- Sherman County, TX R+69
- Oldham County, TX R+80
- Cimarron County, OK R+68
- Union County, NM R+52
- Hutchinson County, TX R+60
- Potter County, TX R+19
- Randall County, TX R+46
- Hansford County, TX R+68
Counties with Similar Populations
- Boone County, NE R+64
- Morris County, KS R+52
- Stark County, IL R+47
- Floyd County, TX R+50
- Mahnomen County, MN R+16
- Haskell County, TX R+65
- McHenry County, ND R+61
- Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area, AK D+17
- Luce County, MI R+32
- Jefferson County, OK R+68
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.