Lake Ariel leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Lake Ariel typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lake Ariel, ~26% vote Democratic, ~55% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lake Ariel compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lake Ariel leans more Republican than 95 of 134 neighbors.
Lake Ariel runs about 34 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lake Ariel. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+43) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+27), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Lake Ariel leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Lake Ariel. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Lake Ariel, PA sits above the national average on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Lake Ariel looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Lake Ariel is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 64%, above 63% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Cortez, PA R+36
- Sterling, PA R+41
- Marshwood, PA R+31
- Pink, PA R+43
- South Canaan, PA R+47
- Mount Cobb, PA R+31
- Lakeville, PA R+27
- Bloomington, PA R+36
- Greentown, PA R+30
- Moscow, PA R+22
Cities with Similar Populations
- Suamico, WI R+23
- Advance, NC R+40
- Prairie Ridge, WA R+17
- St. Marys, PA R+42
- Cedar Grove, NJ R+7
- Lake Geneva, WI R+6
- Mitchellville, MD D+83
- Crestwood, MO D+19
- North Bend, OR R+5
- Northlake, IL D+17
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.