Lake Ozark leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 89% of adults in Lake Ozark typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lake Ozark, ~24% vote Democratic, ~65% Republican, and ~11% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lake Ozark compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lake Ozark leans more Republican than 2 of 47 neighbors.
Lake Ozark runs about 28 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lake Ozark. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+67) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+38), a spread of about 28 points.
Why Lake Ozark leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lake Ozark, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lake Ozark votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 32%, modestly above the Missouri average of 22%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Frequent mental distress and voter turnout
Places with a low frequent-mental-distress rate tend to turn out at a higher rate; Lake Ozark, MO sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Reported mental distress does not drive turnout; it reflects economic and health conditions tied to voting.
Why turnout in Lake Ozark looks the way it does
Turnout in Lake Ozark sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Village of Four Seasons, MO R+38
- Osage Beach, MO R+46
- Rocky Mount, MO R+59
- Bagnell, MO R+67
- Kaiser, MO R+66
- Sunrise Beach, MO R+49
- West Aurora, MO R+67
- Lakeside, MO R+70
- Gravois Mills, MO R+56
- Eldon, MO R+57
Cities with Similar Populations
- Marshall, WI R+3
- Murrayville, GA R+61
- Avon, NY R+10
- Elverta, CA R+33
- Muleshoe, TX R+46
- Dundee, FL R+12
- Aitkin, MN R+30
- Nyssa, OR R+38
- New Whiteland, IN R+45
- Franklin, GA R+68
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.