Mud Bay leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Alaska did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 77% of adults in Mud Bay typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mud Bay, ~29% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mud Bay compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Mud Bay leans more Republican than 2 of 3 neighbors.
Mud Bay runs about 12 points more Republican than Alaska as a whole.
Why Mud Bay leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Mud Bay. None of them point strongly toward either party.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Mud Bay, AK sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Mud Bay looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 97% of adults in Mud Bay have completed high school, about 8 points above the Alaska average of 89%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Ketchikan, AK Even
- Saxman, AK R+11
- Metlakatla, AK Even
- Meyers Chuck, AK R+20
- Thorne Bay, AK R+39
- Hydaburg, AK R+3
- Klawock, AK R+13
- Craig, AK R+33
- Naukati Bay, AK R+22
Cities with Similar Populations
- Patterson, MO R+72
- Baxter Estates, NY D+34
- Louisville, AL R+7
- Tennessee, AR R+46
- Northfield, KY Even
- Audubon Park, NJ D+8
- Nemo, TX R+75
- Minnesota Lake, MN R+46
- Phillipsville, PA R+42
- Hamburg, WI R+45
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Alaska Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. AK did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.