New Buffalo is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 96% of adults in New Buffalo typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in New Buffalo, ~50% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~4% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How New Buffalo compares
Among cities within 25 miles, New Buffalo leans more Democratic than 45 of 57 neighbors.
New Buffalo runs about 6 points more Democratic than Michigan as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within New Buffalo. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+18) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (Even), a spread of about 19 points.
Why New Buffalo leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in New Buffalo. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; New Buffalo, MI sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in New Buffalo looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. New Buffalo is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Grand Beach, MI D+18
- Michiana, MI D+18
- Union Pier, MI D+5
- Michiana Shores, IN D+6
- Tee Lake, IN R+32
- Lakeside, MI D+11
- Long Beach, IN D+17
- Three Oaks, MI R+26
- Pottawattamie Park, IN D+19
- Harbert, MI D+12
Cities with Similar Populations
- East Dundee, IL D+6
- Byrdstown, TN R+69
- Omega, GA R+59
- Brundidge, AL R+15
- North, SC R+4
- Parrish, AL R+72
- Berlin, MA D+18
- Butler, OH R+58
- Plympton, MA R+14
- Black Hawk, CO D+15
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Michigan Department of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.