New Caney leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 48% of adults in New Caney typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in New Caney, ~15% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~52% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How New Caney compares
Among cities within 25 miles, New Caney leans more Republican than 13 of 34 neighbors.
New Caney runs about 24 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within New Caney. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+59) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+29), a spread of about 31 points.
Why New Caney leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for New Caney, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
New Caney votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 57%, well above the Texas average of 35%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and New Caney sits in the bottom quarter (about 15%, below 77% of cities). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 78% of households in New Caney are family households, above 85% of cities.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; New Caney, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in New Caney looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. New Caney is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 47%, about 7 points below the Texas average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 28% of households in New Caney rent, above 81% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Woodbranch, TX R+52
- Roman Forest, TX R+45
- Walden Woods, TX R+48
- Patton Village, TX R+50
- Porter, TX R+30
- Splendora, TX R+60
- Plum Grove, TX R+38
- Huffman, TX R+61
- Humble, TX Even
- Wigginsville, TX R+62
Cities with Similar Populations
- Shippensburg, PA R+31
- Hudson, OH D+4
- Smyrna, DE D+15
- Mequon, WI D+4
- Covington, KY D+23
- Saline, MI D+21
- Sheridan, WY R+43
- Bay Point, CA D+37
- Farmington, UT R+26
- Centerville, OH R+4
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.