New Chapel Hill is a Republican stronghold. About 19% of voters here vote Democratic and 81% Republican.
About 67% of adults in New Chapel Hill typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in New Chapel Hill, ~13% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How New Chapel Hill compares
Among cities within 25 miles, New Chapel Hill leans more Republican than 26 of 61 neighbors.
New Chapel Hill runs about 49 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within New Chapel Hill. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+72) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+50), a spread of about 22 points.
Why New Chapel Hill leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in New Chapel Hill. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Non-English at home and voter turnout
Places with a low non-English-at-home share tend to turn out at a higher rate; New Chapel Hill, TX sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in New Chapel Hill looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. New Chapel Hill is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Whitehouse, TX R+59
- Arp, TX R+63
- Tyler, TX R+12
- Sinclair City, TX R+57
- Troup, TX R+57
- Winona, TX R+43
- Overton, TX R+58
- Wright City, TX R+64
- Salem, TX R+72
- Laird Hill, TX R+61
Cities with Similar Populations
- Smiths Bend, TX R+75
- Cool Spring, SC R+72
- Rocky Ford, NC Even
- Pettit, OK R+46
- Hiltons, VA R+72
- Dakota City, IA R+41
- Bellemont, AZ R+14
- Almond, NY R+31
- Girard, MI R+48
- Waverly, KS R+60
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.