Oakley is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 56% of adults in Oakley typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Oakley, ~29% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Oakley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Oakley sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 22 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 29 leaning the other way.
Oakley runs about 18 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Oakley. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+12) and the south side runs the most Republican (R+5), a spread of about 17 points.
Why Oakley leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Oakley. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Oakley, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Oakley looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 6% of homes in Oakley have more than one occupant per room, above 90% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Knightsen, CA R+21
- Brentwood, CA D+7
- Bethel Island, CA R+15
- Antioch, CA D+34
- Bridgehead, CA R+8
- Discovery Bay, CA R+12
- Byron, CA R+27
- Pittsburg, CA D+38
- Birds Landing, CA R+33
- Isleton, CA R+13
Cities with Similar Populations
- Newbury Park, CA D+13
- Hilo, HI D+24
- Washington, PA R+18
- Gadsden, AL R+19
- Salem, MA D+41
- North Tonawanda, NY R+15
- West Columbia, SC R+13
- Egg Harbor Township, NJ R+4
- Navarre, FL R+44
- Oakland Park, FL D+25
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.