North Tonawanda, NY Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in North Tonawanda

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

North Tonawanda leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.

 

About 80% of adults in North Tonawanda typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in North Tonawanda, ~34% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How North Tonawanda compares

Among cities within 25 miles, North Tonawanda leans more Republican than 30 of 73 neighbors.

North Tonawanda runs about 27 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while North Tonawanda is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within North Tonawanda. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+21) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+3), a spread of about 17 points.

Why North Tonawanda leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for North Tonawanda, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

North Tonawanda votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 71%, far above the New York average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. North Tonawanda runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.

Walkability and Democratic lean

Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; North Tonawanda, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.

Why turnout in North Tonawanda looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. North Tonawanda is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.