Occoquan leans Democratic by roughly 24 points: about 62% of voters vote Democratic and 38% Republican.
About 57% of adults in Occoquan typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Occoquan, ~35% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Occoquan compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Occoquan leans more Democratic than 58 of 152 neighbors.
Occoquan runs about 18 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Why Occoquan leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Occoquan, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 86% of residents in Occoquan live in densely developed areas, about 50 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Occoquan sits in the top quarter (about 39%, above 86% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 31% of adults in Occoquan have never been married, above 79% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Occoquan, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Occoquan looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 35% of households in Occoquan rent, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 86% of adults in Occoquan have completed high school, below 76% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lake Ridge, VA D+26
- Crosspointe, VA D+22
- Laurel Hill, VA D+40
- Lorton, VA D+35
- Marumsco, VA D+23
- Potomac Mills, VA D+22
- Newington Forest, VA D+35
- Woodbridge, VA D+35
- Newington, VA D+37
Cities with Similar Populations
- Parkers Chapel, AR R+64
- Verden, OK R+68
- Shelby, IA R+54
- Whiting, IA R+48
- Otter Hill, VA R+49
- Walnut Grove, AL R+84
- Green Hill, TX R+66
- Lakehead, CA R+26
- Tribune, KS R+66
- Eastborough, KS D+7
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.