Osceola leans Democratic by roughly 20 points: about 60% of voters vote Democratic and 40% Republican.
About 51% of adults in Osceola typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Osceola, ~31% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Osceola compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Osceola leans more Democratic than 69 of 70 neighbors.
Osceola runs about 50 points more Democratic than Arkansas as a whole. Arkansas leans Republican overall, while Osceola is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Osceola. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+84) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+30), a spread of about 115 points.
Why Osceola leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Osceola, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting. Non-Hispanic white share in Osceola is about 34%, about 38 points below the U.S. average of 72%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 40% of adults in Osceola have never been married, above 94% of cities. Osceola runs against the grain of Arkansas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Osceola, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Osceola looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Osceola is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 43%, about 8 points below the Arkansas average of 51%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 56% of households in Osceola rent, compared to around 25% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 32% of adults in Osceola report food insecurity, above 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Driver, AR R+22
- Luxora, AR D+15
- Burdette, AR R+40
- Keiser, AR R+73
- Lowden, AR R+47
- Marie, AR R+77
- Fulton, TN R+58
- Wilson, AR R+53
Cities with Similar Populations
- Fayette, AL R+54
- Lakemoor, IL R+12
- Citrus Hills, FL R+34
- Bridge City, LA D+22
- River Rouge, MI D+51
- Prosperity, SC R+46
- Moneta, VA R+48
- Inverness Highlands South, FL R+46
- Neptune Beach, FL R+14
- Georgetown, OH R+56
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.