Paines Hollow leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Paines Hollow typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Paines Hollow, ~20% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Paines Hollow compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Paines Hollow leans more Republican than 76 of 116 neighbors.
Paines Hollow runs about 56 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Paines Hollow is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Paines Hollow leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Paines Hollow, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Paines Hollow votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while Paines Hollow runs about 56 points more Republican.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Paines Hollow, NY sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Paines Hollow looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Paines Hollow is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 64%, above 66% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Deck, NY R+47
- Jacksonburg, NY R+42
- Jordanville, NY R+47
- Newville, NY R+47
- Mohawk, NY R+28
- Dennison Corners, NY R+47
- Herkimer, NY R+17
- Little Falls, NY R+21
- Van Hornesville, NY R+35
Cities with Similar Populations
- Shooks, MN R+55
- Cavour, WI R+42
- St. Leo, KS R+69
- Y City, AR R+65
- Palatka, AR R+53
- South Calera, AL R+54
- Galchutt, ND R+47
- Rimby, MO R+70
- Fowler Grove, TN R+72
- Opheim, MT R+64
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.