Herkimer leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 63% of adults in Herkimer typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Herkimer, ~26% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Herkimer compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Herkimer leans more Republican than 17 of 118 neighbors.
Herkimer runs about 30 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Herkimer is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Herkimer. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+39) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+4), a spread of about 35 points.
Why Herkimer leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Herkimer, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Herkimer votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 68%, far above the New York average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Herkimer runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Herkimer, NY sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Herkimer looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Herkimer is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 60%, below 57% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- North Ilion, NY R+26
- Mohawk, NY R+28
- Ilion, NY R+22
- Jacksonburg, NY R+42
- East Schuyler, NY R+37
- Dennison Corners, NY R+47
- North Columbia, NY R+48
- Paines Hollow, NY R+43
- Frankfort, NY R+34
- Little Falls, NY R+21
Cities with Similar Populations
- York, NE R+45
- Woodfield, SC D+55
- Page, AZ D+3
- Mexia, TX R+18
- Bohemia, NY R+33
- Dos Palos, CA R+11
- Krum, TX R+51
- Madera Acres, CA R+15
- Soldotna, AK R+30
- Camp Pendleton North, CA R+25
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.