Paul, ID Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Paul

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Paul is a Republican stronghold. About 16% of voters here vote Democratic and 84% Republican.

 

About 68% of adults in Paul typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Paul, ~11% vote Democratic, ~57% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Paul compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Paul leans more Republican than 5 of 16 neighbors.

Paul runs about 31 points more Republican than Idaho as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Paul. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+74) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+61), a spread of about 13 points.

Why Paul leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Paul, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 88% of residents in Paul drive to work alone, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 74%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in Paul are family households, above 81% of cities.

Park access and Republican lean

Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Paul, ID sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.

Why turnout in Paul looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Paul is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Idaho Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.