Payne leans heavily Republican by roughly 42 points: about 29% of voters vote Democratic and 71% Republican.
About 63% of adults in Payne typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Payne, ~18% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Payne compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Payne leans more Republican than 12 of 43 neighbors.
Payne runs about 11 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Payne. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+59) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+36), a spread of about 23 points.
Why Payne leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Payne, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 4% of residents in Payne live in densely developed areas, about 9 points below the Arkansas average of 13%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Payne, AR sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Payne looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 91% of households in Payne own their home, about 13 points above the Arkansas average of 78%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sandy Bend, AR R+55
- Strong, AR R+14
- New London, AR R+59
- Old Union, AR R+69
- Ritchie, AR R+69
- Sandy Land, AR R+7
- El Dorado, AR R+6
- Moro Bay, AR R+59
- Lapile, AR Even
Cities with Similar Populations
- Abbot, ME R+44
- Sorrento, ME R+11
- Passaconaway, NH D+18
- St. Anthony, MO R+78
- Glendale, UT R+71
- Jones Mill, TN R+72
- Pedlar Mills, VA R+48
- Belmont, VT R+6
- Middleton, TX R+74
- Hanna, OK R+58
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.