Pencil Bluff is a Republican stronghold. About 18% of voters here vote Democratic and 82% Republican.
About 66% of adults in Pencil Bluff typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Pencil Bluff, ~12% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Pencil Bluff compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Pencil Bluff leans more Republican than 11 of 35 neighbors.
Pencil Bluff runs about 34 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Why Pencil Bluff leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Pencil Bluff, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 4% of residents in Pencil Bluff live in densely developed areas, about 9 points below the Arkansas average of 13%.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Pencil Bluff, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Pencil Bluff looks the way it does
Turnout in Pencil Bluff sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Y City, AR R+65
- Oden, AR R+63
- Sims, AR R+63
- Whitetown, AR R+66
- Mount Ida, AR R+61
- Pine Ridge, AR R+66
- Story, AR R+67
- Hurricane Grove, AR R+68
- Black Springs, AR R+73
- Norman, AR R+70
Cities with Similar Populations
- Coxburg, MS R+20
- Nebish, MN R+38
- Lariat, TX R+74
- Douglas, ND R+53
- Mount Zion, KY R+65
- Bellevue, LA R+64
- Dubois, GA R+47
- Neptune, IA R+53
- Lockhart, MS D+32
- Thurston, NY R+60
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.