St. Paul is a Republican stronghold. About 18% of voters here vote Democratic and 82% Republican.
About 73% of adults in St. Paul typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in St. Paul, ~13% vote Democratic, ~60% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How St. Paul compares
Among cities within 25 miles, St. Paul leans more Republican than 14 of 102 neighbors.
St. Paul runs about 69 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while St. Paul is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why St. Paul leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for St. Paul, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
St. Paul votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while St. Paul runs about 69 points more Republican.
Housing overcrowding and voter turnout
Places with low overcrowding tend to turn out at a higher rate; St. Paul, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in St. Paul looks the way it does
Turnout in St. Paul sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Morefield, VA R+62
- Hamlin, VA R+68
- Carfax, VA R+67
- Sun, VA R+71
- Castlewood, VA R+71
- Mew, VA R+71
- Temple Hill, VA R+71
- Carterton, VA R+69
- Herald, VA R+68
Cities with Similar Populations
- Gilman, IL R+50
- Kaleva, MI R+34
- Branchville, IN R+44
- Haines, AK R+16
- Henderson, MD R+49
- Palmyra, TN R+66
- Smithton, MO R+64
- Colmar, PA D+10
- Reva, VA R+39
- Galien, MI R+38
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.