Surprise leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Surprise typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Surprise, ~23% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Surprise compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Surprise leans more Republican than 116 of 136 neighbors.
Surprise runs about 41 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Surprise is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Surprise leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Surprise, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Surprise votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while Surprise runs about 41 points more Republican.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Surprise, NY sits below the national average on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Surprise looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Surprise is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 92% of households in Surprise own their home, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Greenville Center, NY R+27
- Earlton, NY R+30
- Climax, NY R+27
- Freehold, NY R+26
- Greenville, NY R+26
- Hannacroix, NY R+27
- Alcove, NY R+31
- Cairo, NY R+24
- South Westerlo, NY R+26
- Leeds, NY R+28
Cities with Similar Populations
- Adelphi, OH R+60
- Revere, MN R+53
- Fairfield, FL R+37
- Blenker, WI R+46
- Kola, MS R+74
- Plad, MO R+71
- Wardville, LA R+84
- Pleasant View, NC R+40
- Kensington, SC R+13
- Valley Water Mills, MO R+52
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.