Valley Water Mills is a Republican stronghold. About 24% of voters here vote Democratic and 76% Republican.
About 83% of adults in Valley Water Mills typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Valley Water Mills, ~20% vote Democratic, ~63% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Valley Water Mills compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Valley Water Mills leans more Republican than 9 of 56 neighbors.
Valley Water Mills runs about 34 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Why Valley Water Mills leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Valley Water Mills. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Valley Water Mills, MO does.
Why turnout in Valley Water Mills looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 98% of adults in Valley Water Mills have completed high school, about 9 points above the Missouri average of 89%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Fruitland, MO R+63
- Strafford, MO R+56
- Glidewell, MO R+57
- Fair Grove, MO R+58
- Springfield, MO R+10
- Pleasant Hope, MO R+68
- Willard, MO R+52
- Brighton, MO R+67
- Northview, MO R+67
Cities with Similar Populations
- Rosevine, TX R+81
- Adelphi, OH R+60
- Leota, MN R+69
- Fairfield, FL R+37
- Kranzburg, SD R+56
- Surprise, NY R+28
- Pleasant View, NC R+40
- Plad, MO R+71
- Kola, MS R+74
- Delavan, MN R+46
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.