Toledo is a Republican stronghold. About 23% of voters here vote Democratic and 77% Republican.
About 54% of adults in Toledo typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Toledo, ~12% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~46% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Toledo compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Toledo leans more Republican than 16 of 37 neighbors.
Toledo runs about 24 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Toledo. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+81) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+45), a spread of about 35 points.
Why Toledo leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Toledo, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 86% of residents in Toledo drive to work alone, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 74%.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Toledo, AR does.
Why turnout in Toledo looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 28% of households in Toledo rent, above 80% of cities. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Toledo sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Saline, AR R+70
- Rison, AR R+67
- Staves, AR R+79
- Kingsland, AR R+62
- Kedron, AR R+45
- Rye, AR R+80
- Randall, AR R+54
- New Edinburg, AR R+63
- Herbine, AR R+80
- Pansy, AR R+80
Cities with Similar Populations
- Ray, MN R+34
- Santa Monica, TX R+16
- Center Hill, PA R+58
- Elrama, PA R+37
- Prospect, NY R+32
- Eris, OH R+61
- Pearl, KY R+82
- Lenoxville, PA R+39
- Barnhill, OH R+58
- Irona, NY R+36
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.