Santa Monica leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 28% of adults in Santa Monica typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Santa Monica, ~12% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~72% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Santa Monica compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Santa Monica leans more Republican than 24 of 30 neighbors.
Politically, Santa Monica sits close to the rest of Texas.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Santa Monica. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+45) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+13), a spread of about 32 points.
Why Santa Monica leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Santa Monica, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 9% of adults in Santa Monica hold a bachelor's degree, about 17 points below the Texas average of 26%.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Santa Monica, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Santa Monica looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Santa Monica is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 41%, about 12 points below the Texas average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 51% of households in Santa Monica rent, compared to around 20% in nearby cities. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Santa Monica sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Raymondville, TX R+3
- San Perlita, TX R+45
- Lyford, TX R+7
- Willamar, TX R+21
- Sebastian, TX R+9
- Lasara, TX R+6
- Yznaga, TX R+19
- Stuart Place, TX R+14
- Combes, TX R+9
- Santa Rosa, TX R+10
Cities with Similar Populations
- Bradfordton, IL R+19
- Tatum, SC R+22
- Taylor Creek, OH R+35
- Grantsburg, IL R+47
- Ebenezer, MS D+40
- Whitaker, AR R+73
- Elrama, PA R+37
- Seventy Six, KY R+75
- Lenoxville, PA R+39
- Eris, OH R+61
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.