Vernon leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 54% of adults in Vernon typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vernon, ~23% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~46% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Vernon compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Vernon leans more Republican than 3 of 18 neighbors.
Vernon runs about 11 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Vernon. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+15) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+54), a spread of about 70 points.
Why Vernon leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Vernon, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 1% of residents in Vernon live in densely developed areas, about 37 points below the Arizona average of 39%.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Vernon, AZ does.
Why turnout in Vernon looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 7% of homes in Vernon have more than one occupant per room, above 93% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Concho, AZ R+48
- White Mountain Lake, AZ R+61
- Pinetop Country Club, AZ R+23
- Lakeside, AZ R+37
- Pinetop, AZ D+23
- Pinetop-Lakeside, AZ R+30
- Lake of the Woods, AZ R+33
- Wagon Wheel, AZ R+32
- McNary, AZ D+40
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lynchburg, SC D+41
- Phelps, KY R+73
- Cibecue, AZ D+57
- Bayside, CA D+52
- Smith River, CA R+12
- Upper Nyack, NY D+51
- Sturgeon Lake, MN R+37
- Glasford, IL R+41
- Valley, WA R+48
- Hildebran, NC R+53
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.