Wagon Wheel leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 84% of adults in Wagon Wheel typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Wagon Wheel, ~29% vote Democratic, ~55% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Wagon Wheel compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Wagon Wheel leans more Republican than 10 of 20 neighbors.
Wagon Wheel runs about 26 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Wagon Wheel. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+41) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+26), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Wagon Wheel leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Wagon Wheel, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Wagon Wheel votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 34%, modestly below the Arizona average of 39%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Wagon Wheel, AZ sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Wagon Wheel looks the way it does
Turnout in Wagon Wheel sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lake of the Woods, AZ R+33
- Lakeside, AZ R+37
- Show Low, AZ R+30
- Pinetop-Lakeside, AZ R+30
- Pinetop, AZ D+23
- Linden, AZ R+55
- Pinetop Country Club, AZ R+23
- White Mountain Lake, AZ R+61
- McNary, AZ D+40
Cities with Similar Populations
- East Setauket, NY R+2
- Springridge, LA R+62
- Union Springs, NY R+13
- New Church, VA Even
- Lacona, NY R+36
- Harpersville, AL R+61
- Laotto, IN R+55
- Reeseville, WI R+44
- Berry, KY R+64
- Pleasant Hill, TN R+66
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.