Walnut Creek, AZ Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Walnut Creek

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Walnut Creek leans heavily Republican by roughly 50 points: about 25% of voters vote Democratic and 75% Republican.

 

About 40% of adults in Walnut Creek typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Walnut Creek, ~10% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~60% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Walnut Creek compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Walnut Creek leans more Republican than 6 of 10 neighbors.

Walnut Creek runs about 44 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.

Why Walnut Creek leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Walnut Creek, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 6% of adults in Walnut Creek hold a bachelor's degree, about 19 points below the Arizona average of 25%.

Paved land cover and Republican lean

Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Walnut Creek, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.

Why turnout in Walnut Creek looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Walnut Creek is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 8 points below the Arizona average of 54%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 22% of adults in Walnut Creek report food insecurity, above 86% of cities. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Walnut Creek sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.