Warm Springs is a Republican stronghold. About 14% of voters here vote Democratic and 86% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Warm Springs typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Warm Springs, ~7% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Warm Springs compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Warm Springs leans more Republican than 41 of 54 neighbors.
Warm Springs runs about 41 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Why Warm Springs leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Warm Springs, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Warm Springs, about 98% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 26 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 9% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 9 points below the Arkansas average of 18%. Rural areas vote Republican, and Warm Springs sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 3%, below 91% of cities). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in Warm Springs are family households, above 78% of cities.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Warm Springs, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Warm Springs looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 12% of homes in Warm Springs have more than one occupant per room, above 98% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 78% of adults in Warm Springs have completed high school, below 93% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Ingram, AR R+71
- Tucker, MO R+74
- Dalton, AR R+72
- Middlebrook, AR R+70
- Gatewood, MO R+73
- Maynard, AR R+70
- Poynor, MO R+74
- Elevenpoint, AR R+73
- Cedar Grove, AR R+70
Cities with Similar Populations
- Dukes, KY R+60
- Shannon City, IA R+51
- Topsey, TX R+65
- Mummasburg, PA R+42
- Wilson Creek, WA R+71
- Parksville, SC R+32
- Telbasta, NE R+55
- Elco, PA R+38
- Rosston, OK R+82
- Sunny Side, TX R+14
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.