Warm Springs is a Republican stronghold. About 25% of voters here vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 72% of adults in Warm Springs typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Warm Springs, ~18% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Warm Springs compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Warm Springs leans more Republican than 19 of 60 neighbors.
Warm Springs runs about 56 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Warm Springs is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Warm Springs. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+60) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+44), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Warm Springs leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Warm Springs, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in Warm Springs live in densely developed areas, about 23 points below the Virginia average of 26%. Warm Springs runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Warm Springs, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Warm Springs looks the way it does
Turnout in Warm Springs sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- West Warm Springs, VA R+55
- Mountain Grove, VA R+56
- Bacova, VA R+46
- McClung, VA R+60
- Williamsville, VA R+59
- Mitchelltown, VA R+50
- Bacova Junction, VA R+47
- Millboro, VA R+62
- Frost, WV R+61
- Minnehaha Springs, WV R+60
Cities with Similar Populations
- Clementsville, KY R+77
- Kingville, AL R+70
- Bartlett, KS R+72
- Oakwood, MI R+45
- Melbeta, NE R+73
- Sweden, MO R+72
- Harris, TN R+65
- Riverdale, ND R+59
- Mc Connell, IL R+47
- Newport, OK R+65
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.