Willmar leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Willmar typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Willmar, ~31% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Willmar compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Willmar is the least Republican-leaning.
Willmar runs about 19 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Willmar is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Willmar. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+33) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+4), a spread of about 29 points.
Why Willmar leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Willmar, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Willmar votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 68%, far above the Minnesota average of 23%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Willmar runs against the grain of Minnesota, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Willmar, MN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Willmar looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Willmar is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Kandiyohi, MN R+46
- Svea, MN R+57
- Pennock, MN R+44
- Spicer, MN R+37
- Raymond, MN R+59
- Atwater, MN R+45
- Blomkest, MN R+59
- Lake Lillian, MN R+45
- New London, MN R+38
- Kerkhoven, MN R+45
Cities with Similar Populations
- Athens, TN R+53
- Carney, MD D+14
- Bedford, IN R+47
- Santa Fe, TX R+56
- DeBary, FL R+24
- Selma, AL D+53
- Allston, MA D+67
- Chagrin Falls, OH R+5
- Boaz, AL R+71
- Little River, SC R+34
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.