Wilmington leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 79% of adults in Wilmington typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Wilmington, ~27% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Wilmington compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Wilmington leans more Republican than 33 of 70 neighbors.
Wilmington runs about 43 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Wilmington is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Wilmington. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+46) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+27), a spread of about 19 points.
Why Wilmington leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Wilmington, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Wilmington votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 39%, modestly above the Illinois average of 33%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Wilmington runs against the grain of Illinois, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Park access and Democratic lean
Places with heavy park coverage tend to lean Democratic; Wilmington, IL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Wilmington looks the way it does
Turnout in Wilmington sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lakewood Shores, IL R+47
- Braidwood, IL R+32
- Symerton, IL R+47
- Ritchie, IL R+48
- Diamond, IL R+33
- Godley, IL R+40
- Lorenzo, IL R+38
- Eileen, IL R+25
- Coal City, IL R+30
- Braceville, IL R+31
Cities with Similar Populations
- Sandwich, MA D+13
- Nebo, NC R+57
- Beaufort, NC R+29
- Hollister, MO R+48
- Doraville, GA D+30
- Jordan, MN R+23
- St. Amant, LA R+77
- Lago Vista, TX R+15
- Irvine, KY R+63
- Ingleside, TX R+45
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.