12754 leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 58% of adults in 12754 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12754, ~27% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12754 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12754 leans more Republican than 7 of 36 neighbors.
12754 runs about 19 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12754 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 12754. The west side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+25), a spread of about 27 points.
Why 12754 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12754, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
12754 votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12754 runs about 19 points more Republican.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a never-married-heavy adult population and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as 12754, NY does.
Why turnout in 12754 looks the way it does
Areas with high food insecurity turn out at lower rates. About 22% of adults in 12754 report food insecurity, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 16%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 48% of households in 12754 rent, compared to around 25% in nearby zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.