12781 leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 70% of adults in 12781 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12781, ~25% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12781 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12781 leans more Republican than 31 of 33 neighbors.
12781 runs about 41 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12781 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 12781 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12781, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
12781 votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12781 runs about 41 points more Republican. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 12781 sits in the bottom quarter (about 16%, below 78% of zip codes).
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; 12781, NY sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 12781 looks the way it does
Turnout in 12781 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.