12863 leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 62% of adults in 12863 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12863, ~24% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12863 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12863 leans more Republican than 17 of 19 neighbors.
12863 runs about 37 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12863 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 12863 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12863, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 94% of residents in 12863 drive to work alone, about 20 points above the U.S. average of 74%. 12863 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Never-married share and voter turnout
Places with a never-married-heavy adult population tend to turn out at a lower rate; 12863, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 12863 looks the way it does
Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and 12863 sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.